Abstract – AOCRJ-V21P2

Time Series Model to Forecast Area of Mangoes from Pakistan: An Application of Univariate Arima Model

Farooq Ahmed Jam
University of Malaya, Malaysia
Shafaqat Mehmood

Faculty of Commerce, University of Central Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
Zahid Ahmad
Faculty of Commerce, University of Central Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan

Abstract:
The present study is an attempt to find appropriate Univariate ARIMA model by using Box-Jenkins methodology to forecast the area of mangoes in Pakistan. Time series data for a period of 49 years from 1961 to 2009 were used. This study found ARIMA (0,1,0) as appropriate model to forecast the area. Further, this study concludes that in the year 2025 the area of mangoes in Pakistan would be 318.5 thousand hectares. This study also estimates increase in the area of mangoes in future. The finding of this study will be helpful for government, policy makers, exporters, producers, and importing countries.

Keywords: Forecasting, Arima Model, Area, Mangoes, Pakistan

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